Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.999525 1.138717 1.286307 1.454040 1.638947 1.836135 2.061883
2025-02-09 0.771818 0.956431 1.165128 1.416915 1.710764 2.041149 2.438909
2025-02-16 0.607250 0.817411 1.070175 1.392754 1.789370 2.256838 2.844865
2025-02-23 0.463883 0.680786 0.958784 1.334029 1.819386 2.417647 3.201514
2025-03-02 0.344533 0.554310 0.841631 1.252165 1.810449 2.529028 3.507617
2025-03-09 0.272047 0.478735 0.780387 1.234819 1.881543 2.746557 3.964915
2025-03-16 0.211097 0.408088 0.714990 1.202462 1.927712 2.934117 4.397309
2025-03-23 0.176480 0.372083 0.695375 1.233417 2.065162 3.255887 5.033507
2025-03-30 0.134423 0.313692 0.630753 1.186659 2.082766 3.409310 5.446018
2025-04-06 0.105787 0.272754 0.587916 1.168101 2.139884 3.622448 5.956070
2025-04-13 0.081686 0.234165 0.542111 1.137675 2.173830 3.801717 6.426227
2025-04-20 0.067675 0.213386 0.525671 1.155699 2.287373 4.109117 7.104382
2025-04-27 0.055417 0.193777 0.509599 1.175310 2.410608 4.448393 7.864933
2025-05-04 0.044210 0.172923 0.486972 1.179567 2.507800 4.753110 8.591023
2025-05-11 0.035335 0.155041 0.467215 1.186690 2.610680 5.074094 9.361594
2025-05-18 0.026368 0.132630 0.431859 1.156537 2.641629 5.276163 9.951716
2025-05-25 0.018461 0.109064 0.387487 1.099724 2.615374 5.377231 10.380621
2025-06-01 0.014211 0.096533 0.368698 1.096678 2.693177 5.664540 11.134607
2025-06-08 0.010473 0.083369 0.344480 1.076968 2.734928 5.889102 11.792363
2025-06-15 0.008721 0.078427 0.343444 1.113082 2.894980 6.337994 12.857040
2025-06-22 0.006068 0.065979 0.315044 1.075966 2.896043 6.491560 13.412047
2025-06-29 0.004423 0.057602 0.297354 1.063400 2.948353 6.743501 14.151085
2025-07-06 0.003072 0.049217 0.276590 1.038710 2.970612 6.937875 14.793841